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Why is the forecast model so willing to dismiss Florida?
The forecast model has been a bit bullish on Mr. Obama's chances lately.
The forecast model is being very aggressive about pricing in Mr. Romney's gains.
His lead over Mr. Paul is now about 20 percentage points in the forecast model.
The forecast model now projects Mr. Obama to win Pennsylvania by about seven points.
The forecast model has displayed reasonable skill in predicting the total number of storms each season.
The forecast model is specifically designed for states where the polling is reasonably robust.
The forecast model also evaluates polls that exclude cellphones, although it gives them slightly less weight.
The forecast model continues to give a slight edge to Mr. Romney in Florida.
The forecast model uses the jobs number directly in its forecast.
The forecast model assigns only a 0.3 percent chance to a 269-269 tie occurring, however.
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