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These forecasts are deterministic (point forecast representing our best guess) or probabilistic (providing the forecast in terms of probability of exceedance that reflects a range of possible values for the variable of interest), and are statistical in nature or based on numerical models.
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We also evaluate the forecast accuracy in terms of the tide gauge observations.
The worse case scenarios, considered more likely by the authors, see global net energy as having already peaked in 2015: "We see in this analysis that even in the most optimistic model… there is a reduction with respect to forecast in terms of the total World production of liquid hydrocarbon net energy, placing the projected growth of global total gross energy supply under serious stress".
The applicability of density-based approach in dual-porosity gas systems is investigated, and the approach reveals that gas production can be forecast in terms of a rescaled liquid solution that uses depletion-driven parameters, λ and β.
Especially the model where all holidays got removed (remh) shows a clear improvement in the forecasting accuracy in terms of MAE, but it stayed at a similar level for the RMSE.
Our test compares forecasts in terms of LL: the larger the LL value, the better the agreement between forecast and observation.
This could be due to the fact that the forecast accuracy measured in terms of both the amplitude and phase or temporal errors and the forecast precision/reliability quantified in terms of the uncertainty significantly deteriorate with the increase of the lead-time.
This paper offers a solution for long term probabilistic forecasting in terms of hourly loads, applying the combination of input variable scenario simulation and a probabilistic model to generate forecasts.
We present a comparison of ten state-of-the-art forecasting methods in terms of accuracy on public Irish CER dataset.
This paper aims to analyze and compare various methods of solar photovoltaic power forecasting in terms of characteristics and performance.
There are large differences between UPE and UN forecasts in terms of assumed life expectancy for a number of countries, including France, Italy and Germany.
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