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Even among the 33 cases where the final polling margin in a state was within five percentage points, however, the polling average identified the winner correctly in 30 cases.
Pennsylvania has historically had quite accurate polling, with the final polling average missing the eventual margin there by just one percentage point on average between 1996 and 2008.
The final polling conducted across the EU by Votewatch Europe has the Greens falling to around 44 seats from 58 in the current parliament.
There are not really any recent precedents in which a candidate has led by something like 49 percent to 46 percent in the final polling average, as Mr. Obama does now in Ohio, and has wound up losing the state.
He notes that in 2012 only 3.1percentnt of voters were undecided, whereas this year, the final polling averages say that undecideds and third-party voters make up 12.5percentnt of the electorate.
That gave Clinton a giant margin in early returns, vastly at odds with what exit polls showed — and far bigger than the 7-point margin she enjoyed in the final polling average from RealClearPolitics.
Similar(46)
The final polls are being conducted.
However, the final polls were nearly spot on in 2005.
The final poll votes were made public this year, and they shouldn't be next year.
beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl and finished undefeated and No. 2 in the final polls.
Furthermore, the final polls accurately predicted the smashing of Scotland's political mould.
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