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I also think the fact that the forecasts are unscripted is important – the personality of a forecaster, like Rob McElwee, comes through in a way that you just don't get with the glassy stare at the Autocue.
It should be noted that the forecasts are mostly above the average extending back to 1950.
One sign of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty is that the forecasts of respected analysts are all over the map.
The fact that for months the news has been consistently worse than expected shows that the forecasts are wrong.
We can't even be sure that the forecasts guiding our decisions are more insightful than what we would hear from oracles examining goat guts.
Some analysts said Mr. Trichet had left himself an escape hatch by saying that the forecasts were the product of the central bank's staff, not its governing council.
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But beyond that, the forecast is murkier.
New kinds of microprocessors are coming along that, the forecasting outfit says, will have 30 times better energy consumption.
There's nothing like that in the forecasts.
These include metrics that verify the forecast probabilities and metrics that verify the ensemble mean forecast.
That's the forecast".
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com