"There are two things that make the environment extremely unstable: the global economy and low inventories of petroleum products, and that makes any forecasting extremely uncertain," said Mark M. Zandi, chief economist with economy.com, a research organization in West Chester, Pa.
Of course, there is no guarantee that this election will turn out the way that elections have in the past, a flaw that is common to any forecasting model.
But she cautioned that any forecast looking 90 years into the future comes with many caveats.
–Remember that any forecast of future interest rates, including the market's forecast as reflected in the shape of the yield curve, is often wrong, but an idea of where interest rates are headed is better than making a blind decision.
As new data become available, the hundreds of economists at the Fed revise and recalculate numbers, which means that any forecast rarely lasts more than a few months.
Actually, the procedure applies to any forecast models that have additional forecast skill.
Impressive as that sounds, of course, it does not ensure that the Super Bowl has any forecasting power.
But with voter polls pointing to a particularly tight political race, Archer added a note of caution to that forecast: "Any interest rate hike could be delayed if there is prolonged political uncertainty after May's general election and this has a dampening impact on economic activity, particularly business investment".
I'm hesitant to offer any forecast that would be too optimistic, given the enormous amount of uncertainty that's still out there.
Hunched over the slop trough is a hideous, bloated model that refuses to output any forecast, no matter how many polls it is fed.
