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To begin with, the Sure Thing Principle, like State Neutrality, exacerbates concerns about the Rectangular Field Assumption.
For now, our concern is rather the Sure Thing Principle vis-à-vis the internal logic of Savage's theory.
It can actually be seen as a weak version of Independence and the Sure Thing Principle, and it plays a similar role in Jeffrey's theory.
It should moreover be evident, given the discussion of the Sure Thing Principle (STP) in Section 3.1, that Jeffrey's theory does not have this axiom.
Why such data appear to provide counter-examples to the Sure Thing Principle is explained, and the appearance that they do so is dispelled.
This is because the Sure Thing Principle is only plausible if outcomes are specific enough to account for any sort of dependencies between outcomes in different states of the world.
A particularly important case where Simpson's Paradox has been invalidly employed is discussed in Section 3. It has been mooted that paradoxical data provide counter-examples to the Sure Thing Principle in theories of rational choice.
There is a further internal problem with Savage's theory associated with the Sure Thing Principle: the principle is only reasonable when the decision model is constructed such that there is probabilistic independence between the acts an agent is considering and the states of the world that determine the outcomes of these acts.
And she shows that if an agent satisfies a particular set of axioms, which is essentially Savage's except that the Sure Thing Principle is replaced with a strictly weaker one, then the agent's preferences can be represented as maximising risk weighted expected utility; which is essentially Savage-style expected utility weighted by a risk function.
If not, however, the agent's preference ordering will not be adequately rich for Savage's rationality constraints to yield the EU representation result.[9] The axiom in Savage's theory that has received most attention is the Sure Thing Principle.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com