Sentence examples for testable forecast from inspiring English sources
A fundamental question that we have to address within the current prediction program is how we develop testable forecast models and then evaluate these in terms of their reliability and skill in a community-supported way.
They may also provide researchers with "truly testable prospective forecasting," says Tom Parsons, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, California, who was not involved with the research.
Unlike mainstream scientists, deniers do not go on record with testable climate forecasts.
To make an RI forecast model testable, we artificially assign the smallest among all non-zero values of P i (t0, t1, Ml) to every box with P i (t0, t1, Ml) = 0. Given that the sum of all probabilities should be equal to 1 and that the number of zero-value boxes can be very large, this procedure can significantly lower the probabilities in the nonzero-value boxes.
"We as a society," he says, "would be better off if participants in policy debates stated their beliefs in testable forms [and] monitored their forecasting performance, and honoured their reputational bets".
We then convert the RI representation from a binary system to a CSEP-testable model that produces forecasts for the number of earthquakes of predefined magnitudes.
He then converted the RI representation from a binary system to a CSEP-testable model that gives forecasts for the number of earthquakes with prescribed magnitudes.
Tetlock also has an unscientific point to make, which is that "we as a society would be better off if participants in policy debates stated their beliefs in testable forms" — that is, as probabilities — "monitored their forecasting performance, and honored their reputational bets".
It also generates testable predictions.
It should be perfectly testable.
