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As noted earlier, the data make clear that past rounds of LSAPs have pushed down interest rates and term premiums.
The economy so far looks okay, but not if yields rise another percentage point, which would be consistent with a normalization of term premiums.
By changing the composition of our asset holdings, as in our recently completed maturity extension program (MEP), we can influence not just the expected path of short rates, but also term premiums and the shape of the yield curve.
In other words, traders have not revised their view of when the Fed will start to tighten (unless the people filling out the surveys are at complete odds with the folks at the next desk trading bonds).So if expected short-term rates haven't changed, by definition bond yields have shot up because of higher term premiums, or in other words, stuff traders are doing.
Variables that are related to interest like the risk-free rate and term premiums are also the same in their loading.
The result would likely be a faster rise in policy rates and term premiums, widening credit spreads, and a rise in financial volatility that could spill over to global markets.
Similar(52)
This reduces the term premium.
It was Aaron and Reischauer who coined the term "premium support".
The term premium was nearly zero back when Mr Greenspan was scratching his chin.
The big downward pressure on interest rates comes from a declining term premium.
This difference is called the term premium.QE can reduce bond yields two ways.
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