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Under the assumptions of this analysis, the true uncertainty in the central tendency estimates of the most uncertain input parameters is most likely to influence the estimate of maternal dose by ≤ 20%.
If the central tendency estimates of the input parameters (i.e., means, medians) in this analysis are inaccurate, they could bias the estimates of the central tendency and percentiles of the model output even if the variability in the output distribution is accurately estimated.
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The resulting output of the model represented a central tendency estimate of the maternal intake dose.
This analysis results in a recommended central tendency estimate of 1.7, a coefficient of variation of 0.56, and a 95th percentile of 3.4.
Based on the values in Table 7, the central tendency estimate of maternal dose corresponding to 58 μg Hg/L cord blood is 0.7 μg/kg/day.
Because this value is a constant, the variability in the dose estimate is unaffected by the specific value selected, and the central tendency estimate of the dose scales linearly with the selected value.
A ratio of 1.0 is implicitly used in the model, but an uncertainty factor adjustment is applied to the central tendency estimate of dose to address variability in that estimate.
Much of the previous uncertainty in the central tendency estimate of maternal dose resulted from the lack of temporal specificity in the model parameters regarding the period of pregnancy.
Thus, most NHANES-related studies have interpreted the median (or other central tendency estimate) of a spot biomarker distribution with respect to an exposure level of interest (Aylward et al. 2013; Wambaugh et al. 2013).
Because three of the input parameters are judged to have a low degree of true uncertainty (Table 5), it is unlikely that they will contribute significantly to uncertainty in the central tendency estimate of the output.
The analysis presented as part of the NRC report (2000) and discussed in Stern et al. (2002) concluded that dividing the central tendency estimate of dose by a factor of 2 3 would account for 95 99% of the variability in the dose estimate.
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CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com