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Economists, like most other humans, tend to forecast by extrapolating existing trends.
They want the corporate sector as a whole to produce steadily higher profits—and that is just what analysts tend to forecast.
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Second, forecasting models tend to be based on all postwar recessions, not just the 1990 and later postmodern recessions, so they tend to predict a much faster recovery than was ever likely.
Companies tend to beat forecasts twice as often as they miss them, and the biggest companies virtually never miss Wall Street's expectations.
Climate indices derived from sea surface temperature in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean tend to contribute more to forecast skill than indices of the El Niño-Southern Niño-Southern Oscillation
Did candidates with strong momentum heading into caucus night tend to overperform their forecasts?
Forest planners in former Eastern Block countries tend to provide conservative forecasts of timber supply, based on a rigid area control under the legislated rotation ages, and often assuming uniform forest management behaviour irrespective of the owner type.
These classes are suitable for the application of RI models, which tend to produce time-invariant forecast patterns, whether the application is based on a non-declustered catalog, or on the use of declustering as was done by Helmstetter et al. (2006).
Population forecasts tend to assume that future thirtysomethings will have the same problem.
For this reason, divisional cash forecasts tend to be less important than divisional profit plans.
Well, consensus forecasts tend to produce better results than individual ones.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com