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They developed a climate computer model for the archipelago that was based on a mid-range temperature projection being used for a big upcoming UN global-climate report - the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Findings of the present study contribute to the understanding of the effect of climate change on areas with various land use and provide baseline conditions for temperature projection of future climate change scenarios.
Schröder et al. [34], for instance, found an advancement of up to 10 days of phenological stages in the first half year, based on simulations by 10 climate models for the period 2031 60 (temperature projection +3.7 °C in 2100) for Hessen, Germany.
Depending on the model used for temperature projection, the long-term annual mean air temperature rise, comparing the reference periods 1971 to 2000 (8.5°C according to measurements and 8.6°C according to projections) and 2071 to 2100, varies between 3.2°C (ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM) and 3.7°C (WETTREG2010).
Temperature projection variability.
The WHO04 used only one temperature projection (from one climate model) for each study region; thus, our study has placed more emphasis on intermodel ranges of climate uncertainty.
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Methods: Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections for 2057 2059, we projected heat wave days that were defined using four heat wave metrics and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them.
The science on this point is shaky, a reason why the United Nations panel has avoided making temperature projections by region.
Temperature projections for the end of the century depend on how deeply, if at all, greenhouse gas emissions are cut.
"We can say when these organisms are going to be at risk of disease outbreaks based on temperature projections," said Mr Harvell.
When he wrote recently that he thought some of the highest temperature projections could be rejected, skeptics could not contain their enthusiasm.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com