Time-series analysis of these exposure metrics could shed more light on whether deviance from normal temperature is a valid or more precise way to estimate the effect of high temperatures on health.
Biocrusts, precipitation, and January minimum temperature each account for about 3% of deviance in the data.
Each time the launch team got away with a lower-temperature launch, Vaughan argued, engineers noted the deviance, then decided it wasn't sufficiently different from what they had done before to constitute a problem.
The absolute deviance error between the indoor temperatures simulated by TRNSYS and those measured experimentally is as low as (0.3 and 0.4 °CC for the two rooms respectively.
The best global model included rainfall, minimum temperature, and three mosquito species, which explained 63.5% deviance and predicted disease accurately.
Explanatory power went up even further using only US cases: 75% of deviance was explained with changes in population density, temperature, and precipitation.
Therefore, minimum temperature was selected for its slight improvement of AIC and deviance, and for its temperature range comparable with preceding studies, which were mostly done in temperate climates.
31 32 In brief, in the model, multiple temperatures were tested on the basis of the minimum residual deviance of the model.
Parameters included were number of rain days, mean temperature, cloud cover, rainfall and humidity with the final model explaining 90.2% of the deviance (P<0.0001 (for all variables), GCV = 1.117).
However, the performance difference between the best- and worst-fitting model was not large as measured by the proportion of daily mortality variation (i.e., deviance) explained: 27.9% for the SSC model and 24.7% for the deviation from maximum temperature model.
