Mansfield's methodology is discussed, as are his contributions on: the diffusion of technical innovation, the effect of firm size on innovation, the role of academic and basic research in increasing innovation and productivity, international technology transfer and the inaccuracy of technological forecasts.
But a few months ago, while researching early hacker webzines, I found myself in the backwaters of Wired's online archive, reading technological forecasts from 1993.
Unsurprisingly, increasing time horizons significantly decrease the accuracy of technological forecasts [29]; and beyond short term prediction, expert anticipation of possible or probable futures become highly arbitrary [30, 31].
The ranking order of the top ten TIM specialty journals is as follows: Research Policy, Journal of Product Innovation Management, Research-Technology Management, Technovation, R&D Management, Industrial and Corporate Change, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Journal of Technology Transfer, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, and Journal of Engineering and Technology Management.
Standard methods of technological forecasting and technology assessment cannot be applied, or only partially.
One of the most challenging problems in technological forecasting is to identify as early as possible those technologies that have the potential to lead to radical changes in our society.
AS the chairman of a high-priced, high-profile technological forecasting firm in Emeryville, Calif., Peter Schwartz charges corporate clients $2,000 an hour.
Harold A. Linstone, emeritus professor of systems science at Portland State University and longtime editor in chief of Technological Forecasting and Social Change, said Dr. Hoos was in many ways the intellectual conscience in the field of technology assessment.
After her official retirement, at the age of 65, Marie began a new period of creative work with the SPRU at Sussex, making major contributions to research programmes on social and technological forecasting.
In an unusually accurate piece of technological forecasting, Dr. Watson estimated the overall cost would be $3 billion and that the project could be completed in 15 years from its official starting date of 1990.
While the speculative and descriptive aspects of futurology are traceable to the traditions of utopian literature and science fiction, the methodology of the field originated in the "technological forecasting" developed near the end of World War II, of which Toward New Horizons (1947) by Theodore von Kármán is an important example.
