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The taxpayer breaks even when Lloyds shares rise through 122.6p and those in RBS trade above 50.5p.
The shares fell 3% to 335p, below the 502p at which the taxpayer breaks even on its stake, as analysts questioned the growth in the business.
At these prices, the loss in RBS, into which the taxpayer bought at 50.2p, stands at £27bn and in Lloyds, in which the taxpayer breaks even at 73.6p, is £13bn.
He stood to receive just over 3m shares if the share price remained above 73.6p for 30 days – the price at which the taxpayer breaks even on its 42% stake in the bank.
He stands to receive 3m shares – worth £2.5m at current prices – if the share price can remain for 30 days in a row above the 73.6p level at which the taxpayer breaks even on its remaining 33% stake, or if a third of the stake is sold at prices over 61p.
The taxpayer breaks even on its 41% stake in Lloyds at 74p and so was sitting on a £6.1bn paper loss and on an £11bn loss in Royal Bank of Scotland, 84% owned by the state, which reported a reduction in its record £24bn 2008 loss to £3.6bn on Thursday.
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Horta-Osório's £8.5m included an £800,000 bonus in shares, which he will only receive if the government sells off the rest of its stake or the shares remain above the taxpayer break-even price for 126 consecutive days.
The bank, which remains 40% state-owned, would not comment publicly and insisted privately that no decision had yet been made about the chief executive's payout, but sources confirmed that a figure of around £1.4m was under consideration, to be paid in shares and deferred until the taxpayer broke even on its stake.
The rest of the states have broad income taxes but give old taxpayers breaks, some quite generous.
The shares closed down 7% at 226.6p, below the 502p at which taxpayers break even on their 73% stake.
Shares in Lloyds Banking Group have passed the level at which taxpayers break even on their stake in the bailed-out bank for the first time this year.
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