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These probabilities can be estimated based on a pre-defined target prevalence, known surveillance efforts in the target population and known test characteristics of any pre-export test.
Finally, consider the problem of target prevalence.
Fig. 2 Accuracy by target prevalence and presence.
Confidence in search reduced with reduced target prevalence.
As target prevalence changed, so did target density.
Fig. 3 Reaction time by target prevalence and presence.
While the search path is determined independent of target prevalence, the confidence with which search is conducted was not independent of target prevalence.
Accuracy, total search time, and confidence were compared across the three target prevalence conditions.
Do dramatic differences in target prevalence affect our ability to effectively search for that target?
For instance, the target prevalence rate in cancer screening is ~0.3% (Gur et al., 2004).
At high target prevalence, our observers made more false alarm errors and fewer misses.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com