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Trump must hope that the polls are wrong and not just randomly wrong but that there is a systematic polling error in Clinton's favor.
Systematic polling over the last year suggested that even their historic core electoral bases looked for alternatives: PASOK has lost many supporters to parties to its left, especially SYRIZA and the Democratic Left (DHMAR).
As Bump points out, he should be spending time in states where he's "close," which would be exactly a state like Pennsylvania based on this scenario of a systematic polling error.
If Trump needs an alternate reality to win - like a 4-to-6-point systematic polling error - the best choice would be to assume that error exists and then bet his resources where the polls have him behind by about that amount.
Silver was right to question uncertainty levels, and was absolutely correct about the possibility of systematic polling errors ― all in the same direction.
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The counter to this is that while I am not a fan of litigating any one poll to death, it is certainly worth paying attention to systematic trends in a polling firm's body of work.
But I also think that efforts to look at the polls in a systematic way are likely to be superior to much of what passes for polling analysis, which looks at them on an ad-hoc basis.
(By "consensus" I just mean: the average of all the different forecasts that use state polling in a systematic way).
So do precise-sounding measurements of concepts that are ill-defined, and so do voter polls, thanks to systematic and statistical errors.
These are pretty much all the sites I'm aware of that use state polling data in a systematic way.
It turns out that despite Morris's charges of systematic methodological bias, the Times/CBS News polls were actually right on the nose in the last two national elections.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com