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The first calculation the search team ran that morning was a survival simulation, taking into account Aldridge's height (5-9) and weight (150 pounds), plus the weather and water temperature.
Survival simulation was performed using the annual hazard rates that were also derived from these two trials.
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The associated survival probabilities for weak and strong selection simulation patterns are also depicted (simulations B and C).
For our simulations we generated survival times that followed a Cox-exponential survival model using the formula [ 29].
We have also used the Weibull distribution to model the survival outcome, which in simulation studies offered no significant additional advantages, while increasing the running times of the method.
In the simulation relative survival is equivalent to net survival at the individual level since (i) only age affects relative survival and (ii) the population mortality information used to analyse the data is the same as that used to generate the data.
In another simulation "where survival required energy but giving birth had no energy cost, one species evolved a sedentary lifestyle that consisted mostly of mating in order to produce new children which could be eaten (or used as mates to produce more edible children)." This led to what Krakovna called "indolent cannibals".
Second, we explore their properties in survival models using extensive simulation studies.
After observing the relationship between provider type and survival, we conducted a simulation study to assess the potential impact of differential loss to follow-up among subjects by provider type (see additional file 1).
Finally, it is worth mentioning that BC survival functions applied in the simulation model relied on age and stage at detection but did not change during the study years.
As predicted by the simulations, the survival probability indeed shows a peak at intermediate migration rates (Fig. 5c; see Supplementary Figure 4 for population density time series).
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