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Mr Bush's three tax cuts are partly to blame: the OMB reckons they account for 23% of the difference between the original surplus predictions and the current deficit.
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Predictable predictions?
Acting Gov. Donald T. DiFrancesco, who had maintained for many weeks that he would leave office next month with a surplus, has concurred in predictions of a shortfall.
"If you come back in three years," he predicted, "you will instead be asking me, 'Mr Mayor, what will Shanghai do with all of its surplus power?'"His predictions look like being right.
According to the government's bullish predictions, food surpluses should be available next year, and the economy will keep growing rapidly.
The dual economy model with surplus rural land yields two predictions.
Or if forecasts of vast budget deficits are bogus now (as the administration says), why did Mr Bush justify the 2001 cut on predictions of large surpluses?Digging inMore important, in both cases, the administration has not engaged in any serious debate about the implications for its original arguments of changed circumstances.
Among other things, I argued that predictions of big future surpluses, which were used to justify those cuts, were wrong – and one reason I gave was that federal revenues were inflated by the stock bubble, and would soon fall.
The prediction of "a small surplus" was announced at the start of Chancellor George Osborne's Autumn Statement.
The most striking prediction about dark matter is that the surplus should suddenly disappear for positrons whose energy exceeds a certain value.
A TRIGGER mechanism that ties the tax cuts to the actual surplus -- not an estimated surplus based on long-range predictions -- is the only way we can be sure we are voting for fiscally responsible tax cuts," Senator Mary Landrieu, Democrat of Louisiana, said.
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