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The Congressional Budget Office is scheduled to release its own updated surplus forecast next week.
Thanks to its huge energy exports, Russia's current account is in surplus, forecast by the IMF to be 2.1% of GDP in 2014.
The federal budget surplus forecast was revised upward, making it harder for Democrats to argue that Mr. Bush's plan was unaffordable.
Yet elsewhere, the reaction to the budget – which includes a $2.5bn surplus forecast and record school and hospital funding – has been largely muted.
Alan Greenspan, then the Federal Reserve chairman, talked about the dangers of a shortage of Treasury securities as the $5 trillion surplus forecast for the next decade enabled the national debt to be paid down.
A1 Views on Surplus Forecast Politicians and economists differed over the implication of the Congressional Budget Office's new forecast that the budget surplus would grow to $5.61 trillion in the next decade, about $1 trillion higher than July's forecast and $600 billion more than the final Clinton forecast, last month.
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It suggests that, even without an economic downturn, the many rosy surplus forecasts that frame today's debate in Washington are little more than entertaining fictions.
Almost no matter what happens in the next year or two, the surplus forecasts are still stacked in favor of a smaller Treasury market.
"The last time people got really excited about a 10-year budget outlook, they were hysterically wrong about what transpired," said Robert Barbera, the chief economist of ITG, who mocked the surplus forecasts then and now thinks the consensus outlook is too negative.
Alan Greenspan and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton clashed briefly Tuesday over rosy surplus forecasts the Federal Reserve Chairman relied on to support President President Bush's 2001 tax cuts, estimates that turned out to be considerably off the mark.
Despite a $598 million surplus for the previous year and a $59 surplus forecasted for the coming year, the province's net debt was expected to increase from $8.2 billion to $8.67 billion due to unfunded liabilities.
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