BACK in 2005, in an apparent flight of fancy, analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted a "super-spike" in the oil price to $105 a barrel.
Instead of worrying about devaluations of emerging currencies, investors are hoping (and some politicians are demanding) that those currencies will be allowed to appreciate.In this section Loss leaders Kings of the wild frontier Another notch down Rate expectations Super-spiked Kahn do Money v mosquito ReprintsPerhaps the biggest sign of change is in the debt markets.
Fears of a much graver disruption of supplies, due to brewing political tensions in the Middle East, have also helped to push up the price.In this section Loss leaders Kings of the wild frontier Another notch down Rate expectations Super-spiked Kahn do Money v mosquito ReprintsIn theory, new supplies should soon be coming onstream.
Chevron's acquisition will seem brilliantly timed if, as Goldman Sachs argues in a new research report, the world is entering an era of higher and more volatile oil prices that might include "super-spikes" of up to $105 a barrel.But even if oil prices fall, Chevron's risk is limited by the fact that it is largely paying for Unocal with shares.
The Fed's favoured price index, the core personal consumption expenditure deflator, which excludes food and fuel, rose by 1.8% in the year to the third quarter.In this section Loss leaders Kings of the wild frontier Another notch down Rate expectations Super-spiked Kahn do Money v mosquito ReprintsThese are all sensible arguments for lower rates.
Murti boasts some credibility on the issue: He was also the analyst that predicted back in March 2005, when oil traded at around $50 a barrel, that the price would super-spike to $105 a barrel.
Then came an impressive jump to $127.79 Thursday, following hints from the European Central Bank that a rate hike could be on its way, which sent the dollar reeling and foreshadowed Friday's super-spike.
In the weeks after the storms, oil prices super-spiked, then settled down to their still dizzying heights.
On Sunday, when the Giants meet New England in the Super Bowl, the spike, and by extension the ever-expanding craft of end-zone celebrations, will come full circle.
