In order to enumerate network parameters (conditional probabilities) and associated uncertainties for this analysis, we conducted a structured expert judgement elicitation over two days in November 2007 (see Methods, below).
This is the first application of the classical model of structured expert judgement to global health.
Such structured professional judgement may be a way of containing naturally occurring bias in decision making [ 29].
The START and SAPROF are newly developed fourth generation structured professional judgement instruments assessing strengths and protective factors.
Future work applying structured expert judgement to questions of intervention effectiveness is needed to further refine the method.
The structured expert judgement protocol included 10 calibration questions and 23 variables of interest questions (see online supplementary file).
Structured expert judgement provides estimates and uncertainty ranges for rates of long-term disability and death in a variety of treatment contexts.
Structured expert judgement also presents a new opportunity to estimate long-term success rates in context when long-term outcomes are difficult to track.
We find that structured expert judgement is a viable approach to investigating the effectiveness of medical interventions where randomised controlled trials are not possible.
To demonstrate a new application of structured expert judgement to assess the effectiveness of surgery to correct obstetric fistula in a low-income setting.
