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Some analysts pointed to strong spending by businesses as an indication that manufacturing would keep its momentum.
The preliminary data showed relatively strong spending by consumers and businesses, even as military spending posted its sharpest quarterly drop in 40 years.
Yet, all American consumers were still showing surprisingly strong spending patterns, and they expected that to hold going into the holiday season.
Mr. Roach acknowledged that the strong spending by consumers in July did not support his earlier prediction of a return to recession this year.
But a manufacturing surge in the mid-2000s, fueled by exports to China and strong spending by consumers in the United States, had raised hopes that Japan's economy was finally back on track.
Chris Williamson, of data-provider Markit, said: "The decline comes on the back of strong spending growth in the closing months of 2014, fuelled in part by consumers embracing the first major Black Friday promotions in the UK.
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