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To calculate the predicted number of strokes in the validation cohort, 33 the proportionate risk estimate from the derivation cohort was applied according to each separate stratum of risk: low (stroke risk =1.35%), intermediate (6.51%), and high (11.30%) (column 5, Table 1).
(5) Then we added up the individual probabilities P in Table 2 (last column) to predict the number of strokes within each separate stratum of risk: low-risk 0 3 (expected =5.7), intermediate risk 4 5 (25.9) and high risk 6 7 (15.7).
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Our testing strategy was to fit a single model and assess within each stratum of risk-factor subgroup and for different tumour characteristics, haplotype-trait associations as a global likelihood ratio test [ 51].
Three strata of risk were defined (low risk, score 0 to 2; intermediate risk, score 3 to 5; and high risk, score >/=6) with excellent prognostic accuracy for survival in the derivation and validation sets (c statistics = 0.83 and 0.81 for 30-day mortality and 0.79 and 0.78 for 1-year mortality, respectively).
Our model is accurate and has a good calibration for different strata of risk.
Time to death was obtained from the Scottish Death Register and compared across strata of risk.
Within strata of risk factors, we observed no protection among lean women and a significant trend of increased risk with higher activity levels among obese premenopausal women.
The proposed score allows stratification of patients with sepsis at four strata of risk for unfavorable outcome on the basis of APACHE II score and serum suPAR.
The number of strokes across the strata of risk in the validation cohort as predicted by ABCD rule "derivation model" (column 6, Table 1) was then compared to the observed strokes (column 7, Table 1).
Beyond discrimination assessment, as part of the overall predictive performance, forest plots are used to illustrate how our new method contributes to the evaluation of calibration and how the latter may vary across different strata of risk or population sub-groups.
6 For these analyses, which were prespecified in the planned statistical analysis, we used the prognostic model to stratify patients in the CRASH-2 trial whose treatment was initiated within three hours after injury into four strata of risk of mortality (<6%, 6-20%, 21-50%, >50%).
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