Since 2002 China's strategy has been largely built around the possibility of a cross-Strait armed conflict in which China's forces would not only have to overcome opposition from Taiwan but also to deter, delay or defeat an American attempt to intervene.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused Ukrainian authorities of using "gangster tactics" in the Kerch Strait by deliberately provoking a conflict.
The United States and Iran have a history of conflicts in the strait — most recently in January 2008, when the Bush administration chastised Iran for a "provocative act" after five armed Iranian speedboats approached three American warships in international waters, then maneuvered aggressively as radio threats were issued that the American ships would be blown up.
The strait was the scene of past conflict between the United States and Iran, including a 1988 episode in which a U.S. cruiser shot down an Iranian passenger plane mistaken for a fighter plane.
Any kind of conflict in the Taiwan strait would hurl all of China's other relationships into chaos.A chance, at least, to come out of the closetWhich leads, in increasing order of uncertainty, to political reform.
* The International Crisis Group has a history of conflicts over the Taiwan Strait and a 2005 briefing paper titled "Uneasy Detente".
But here the United States may well think twice, because increasing the weaponry in the strait could increase the risk of accidental conflict.
Tidal movements are complicated by northward-moving flood tides from the Pacific coast of Washington entering the strait during part of the time when a conflicting westward-flowing ebb tide is going out.
The State Department has argued that government-to-government dialogue is the only way to reduce cross-strait tensions and mitigate the threat of armed conflict, which could involve American forces.
As long as the conflict continues, the strategic Bab al-Mandab strait appears set to be mired in conflict; Yemen's Gulf neighbours remain at risk of spillover.
Abraham M. Denmark, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia, said in a Pentagon statement that "China continues to focus on preparing for potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait," referring to a strait in the highly contentious South China Sea which separates the island of Taiwan from the Asian mainland.
