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It would provide the country with a huge precautionary inventory of oil, generate revenue to defray some of the government's stockpiling costs, smooth out crude oil price fluctuations and push down spot prices relative to prices for oil to be delivered in the future.
Although treatment-only saved fewer lives than prophylaxis, stockpiling costs for treatment were lower.
We compared the economic outcomes of each of the 5 strategies with nonintervention, estimated stockpiling costs, and calculated cost-benefit ratios.
Oseltamivir stockpiling costs were calculated with prices quoted in March 2004 by the manufacturer's representative in Israel for uncapsulated, water-soluble, bulk active powder with a 10-year shelf life.
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While we have not considered recurring treatment stockpiles, any additional treatment stockpile costs will be borne equally by both strategies.
The finished product stockpile cost comprises stockpile holding cost, transportation holding cost, and backorder cost.
However, stockpiling is cost-beneficial if insurance against a severe pandemic is the main priority, if specific high-risk groups are targeted, and if cheap and effective vaccines are rapidly available through research and development of novel vaccine technologies.
Investment in stockpiling remains cost-saving to the economy as long as the estimated annual pandemic risk remains >1 pandemic every 80 years.
Even under the most unfavorable estimates, prepandemic stockpiling remained cost-saving as long as the estimated probability of a pandemic remained >1 every 80 years.
Even under the lower cost of USD$6.6, long term stockpiling strategies were cost-beneficial only with high vaccine effectiveness of >60% or high attack rates of >40%.
Drug prices can be expected to change substantially as a result of contractual negotiations with manufacturers (although our results indicate stockpiling may remain cost-saving even if drug costs are more than tripled, as would be the case if preprepared capsules are purchased).
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