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Therefore, the model predicts that low, steady prevalence in tick-borne flaviviruses could be maintained by intermediate cofeeding and high systemic transmission rates (Fig. 5A).
This incidence plateau was necessarily accompanied by steady prevalence rates for 8-year-old children.
92 Additionally, these structured populations can persist at a steady prevalence in time, maintain stable limit cycles, or undergo chaotic dynamics, with the latter scenarios reflecting stronger negative frequency-dependent selection.
The relatively low within-couple agreement in HPV-positivity at a single point in time and the steady prevalence of penile HPV infection with age suggest that the natural history of HPV may differ between men and women.
Number of life time partners, sexual behavioral patterns, number of pregnancies, genital hygiene, presence of other STDs, socio-economic conditions, literacy status, underrepresentation of teenagers in the study samples etc. might have influenced the low clearance of incident HPV infections and may be responsible for the constant, steady prevalence of HPV in different age groups in India.
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The force of infection λ is calibrated so that the steady state prevalence in the model is equal to the prevalence p at baseline in the absence of the trial (α = 0).
This means that the steady state prevalence in a population of OA patients in the community, who are not necessarily NSAID users, exceeds the average prevalence for NSAID users in our base model.
The steady state prevalence is however the same for different values of β1 corresponding to long-term scrapie persistence (Figure 2c).
The age-specific transmission parameters were estimated from the estimated age specific FOI, the contact matrix and the age specific steady state prevalence.
However, unlike serotype 4b, which showed a steady annual prevalence, except for a peak in 2010, the number of serotype 1/2a isolates increased through the entire period.
Furthermore, while the authors recognize that ignoring heterogeneity in sexual activity would lead to a predicted steady state prevalence of HIV that is much higher than is generally observed, they incorporated this heterogeneity into their model only indirectly.
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