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Only 1.3 percent of bank loans are nonperforming now, but the rate could rise quickly if households start to default.
But perhaps person-to-person finance's biggest difficulty will be to attract enough lenders particularly once customers start to default, as they surely will.
If banks start to default, the ECB and ultimately the euro-zone taxpayer could be left holding a lot of toxic assets.
If overstretched borrowers start to default, that will hurt shareholders abroad, mainly in Sweden, not the stability of the whole financial system.
Joanna Elson, chief executive of the Money Advice Trust which runs the National Debtline, said: "We have grave concerns that households witnessing a fall in income due to unemployment will start to default on debt repayments, and that we may start to see a sharp rise in personal insolvencies.
And if firms in one badly run commodity-driven country start to default on their dollar debts, then investors will worry about others—such as Brazil.If Russia's economy looks likely to collapse, there will be inevitable calls in the West for sanctions to be cut back.
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The "shadow banking system", which relied on bank finance, started to default.
"Piece by piece, they are starting to default up the chain," said Charles Clough of Clough Capital, a money management firm.
The debt started to default in 1988, when Iraq's liabilities piled up.
Now even the wealthy are starting to default on their mortgages, and the owners of a quarter-trillion dollars in bonds backed by their loans could suffer dearly.
If that stuff starts to default, who owns it?
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com