In view of the initial poor clinical condition, observation period and limited spread of outcome seen in poor-grade patients, favourable outcome was defined as an mRS score of 0 4 and unfavourable outcome as mRS scores of 5 and 6.
Matrix models using the six predictor variables were created for all outcome instruments (figure 1A F) and show a good spread of outcome rates over the different subpopulations defined by the predictor value categories.
With such a wide spread of possible outcomes, it is no wonder that John Kenneth Galbraith, the famed economist, once said that "the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable".
Hugh Courtney, a professor at the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business, thinks more companies should be using "scenario planning" alongside their financial models, which do not produce a large enough spread of possible outcomes to capture the flavour of today's uncertainties.
If the growth rate is slow, then the bin sizes are small and the predicted spread of measured outcomes will also be small.
However, the predictions for the cholesterylester fractions show a larger spread of possible outcomes.
As described in previous sections, several parameters are not constrained by the data and show a large spread of possible outcomes.
With respect to the parameter values, it appeared that several are very constrained by the data and have a well defined value, whereas others show a larger spread of possible outcomes.
This conclusion is supported by the spread of cost-outcome differences across all four quadrants of the cost-effectiveness plane and the slight tendency for estimates to extend further across the south-west quadrant (which represents lower costs and worse outcomes).
Thorndike (1933) described such a system that would assign the weight of influence of an outcome not only to immediately preceding choices that led to that outcome, but also temporally contiguous choices made in the recent past or even closely following this outcome ("spread-of-effect").
Using outbreak simulation techniques we investigated how the probability of detection affects outbreak spread, and outcomes of response strategies such as time to control an outbreak, probability of elimination, and the certainty of declaring freedom from disease.
