Northern leaders have been doing this for decades, using rogue groups, such as the brutal Lord's Resistance Army that originated in neighbouring Uganda, as proxy militias to weaken the south and keep its SPLM off balance.The SPLM says the north is already up to its old tricks again.
If this was Mr Arman, it would help Mr Bashir, as many northerners would never vote for an SPLM man.
FEW men have managed the transition from guerrilla leader to political leader with as much international acclaim as John Garang, leader until his death in a helicopter accident this week of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).
There has been some SPLM intimidation but been few allegations of rigging and no boycotts.
There is even a pinewood sauna, though you can work up just as much sweat by standing outside.But beyond the SPLM leaders' rosy poolside view is a more worrying picture.
As things stand, South Sudan may face a long civil war.What began as a political power struggle within the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), the ruling party, soon took on a lethally ethnic character, pitting the country's two largest communities against each other: Mr Kiir's Dinka, the largest of South Sudan's tribes, versus Mr Machar's Nuer.
And even as malnutrition has increased during the past five years of peace, the SPLM government has spent more than $6 billion of oil revenue, received under a wealth-sharing agreement with the north, not to mention hundreds of millions of dollars in aid.
The SPLM leadership spends 60% of its income on weapons and army pay, as an insurance, it is argued, against renewed hostilities with the north.
For the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), the southerners' main party, led by Salva Kiir, it is the culmination of half a century of often bloody struggle for recognition against successive Islamist regimes in Khartoum.
One rogue SPLM politician, General George Athor, who alleges that an election for governor in Jonglei state was rigged against him in April, when he stood as an independent, has taken to the bush in the north of the state with hundreds of armed followers.
But the three together are now putting considerable pressure on him to change course in Darfur and get serious about peace with the south.Elections were forced on the northern government and the SPLM, the political wing of the SPLA, by foreign donor governments as their price for giving billions of dollars-worth of money to rebuild Sudan after the 2005 peace deal.
