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Government spending will be the main driver.
Reducing spending will be difficult.
On current projections, spending will be $25 billion.
Aid administrative spending will be cut.
PIP spending will be cut by 20%.
Until then, gains in spending will be muted, they predict.
Some areas of Pentagon spending will be protected.
Total social security spending will be capped too.
But defining the relevant spending will be hard.
Osborne says capital spending will be £51bn this year.
11.37am GMT Osborne says aid spending will be maintained.
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