So the current upgrade cycle is more like that of the 1988-1991 technology-spending upthan then the 1993-1997 capacity-spending boom.
Some indicators are pointing to an upturn in spending.
"It's not Mardi Gras," says Doug Flynn, head of Aegis, an advertising agency, "but the attitude and expectation in the US ad market have become much more positive".CMR, a research firm that tracks ad spending, now forecasts an upturn of 1.5% for 2002 in America.
The recent upturn in spending, in Asia and elsewhere, by big oil firms suggests that others are now coming round to Mr O'Reilly's way of thinking.But even if the world's leading oil firms take a more aggressive attitude to new investment, they will struggle to find good ways to expand their business.
The chancellor has said that the UK will see further cuts to public spending despite the recent upturn in the economy.
"The upturn in capital spending that everyone longs for will not come from us," Mr. Berges said.
Still, the panel considered a "robust upturn" in business spending likely at some point, and was optimistic about the possibility of an economic rebound.
And shopkeepers are pessimistic about an immediate upturn in consumer spending, despite a sharp rise in business and investor confidence in recent months.
But the detail of the OBR's forecasts show that it has also resulted from an increasingly buoyant housing market, and an upturn in consumer spending.
Defying expectations for an increase, orders in Japan for new machinery slid for a third straight month, a sign that an upturn in capital spending may be losing steam.
A demand for change, coupled with a natural political cycle that moves priorities from policy development to delivery during the course of a parliament, is now being reflected in a small upturn in public spending on consulting services.
