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Sophisticated polling models?
More sophisticated polling and more thoughtful poll analysis has raised some hard questions about old assumptions.
I cannot do the sophisticated polling that the Pew Foundation expert pollsters do, and the Pew polls show Americans nowadays much more uncertain about their post-9/11 position than they apparently were 10 years ago.
The Des Moines Register poll conducted by Selzer & Co, eagerly awaited by campaign teams because of its sophisticated polling techniques and accuracy in previous caucuses, suggested a tight finish on Tuesday night.
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The idea of doing a more sophisticated poll is something we owe to George Horace Gallup.
Gallup wrote several books, including The Pulse of Democracy (1940) and The Sophisticated Poll Watcher's Guide (1972).
As a proxy, let's look at Nate Silver — one of the most sophisticated poll readers in the country — and see if he did a better job.
For his part, Dr. Gallup argued, in one of his six books, "The Sophisticated Poll Watcher's Guide," which came out in 1972: "Polling is merely an instrument for gauging public opinion.
In 1972 he wrote "The Sophisticated Poll- Watcher's Guide," and in reply to the argument that polls control leaders, he said, "One might as well insist that a thermometer makes the weather".
After the 1990 census when the Census Bureau estimated that it had missed four million people and double counted another four million, the National Academy of Sciences recommended that the Census Bureau conduct a survey -- similar to a very sophisticated poll of 314,000 of households -- and use the data from that sample to adjust the counts.
WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney's presidential campaign has been quietly assembling a massive, technologically sophisticated poll monitoring program that staffers believe will be their secret weapon in defeating President Barack Obama.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
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