"This would lead to so much blood and Libya would be a new Somalia.
"[Al-Shabaab] need people who are quite ignorant about Somalia.
Al-Qaida and its sympathisers may yet prevail in the country-wide Hobbesian strife, or Yemen may dissolve into anarchy, like nearby Somalia.
The men with AK-47 rifles ran fast in the other direction as the patrol by African Union troops I was with entered the village of Goobweyn, a stronghold of the al-Shabaab militia in southern Somalia.
The social and economic crisis in Somalia is exacerbated – and to some extent caused – by clan warfare.
It is also by far the most powerful local army in Somalia.
A story is told in the excellent study of Somalia by James Fergusson – The World's Most Dangerous Place (Bantam Press) – of a group of schoolboys who were tempted into joining al-Shabaab by being given a piece of fruit every day.
In the early 1990s, thousands of American troops withdrew from Somalia in disarray after a badly planned anti-famine intervention went sour.
Afghanistan and Myanmar share second to last place with a score of 1.5, with Somalia and North Korea - measured for the first time - coming in last with a score of 1.
DfID has committed to spending 30% of its budget in fragile states, splashing out£3.4bn on state-building, health and education in 28 countries that have been affected by conflict and humanitarian disasters, including Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Somalia, from 2014-15.
Polio remains a serious threat in Somalia, particularly to the children, and we must continue our intensive vaccination campaigns".
