Evaluation of the vertical error correlation obtained between surface and subsurface layers indicates that the vertical coupling can be improved significantly using ensemble of soil storages compared to the traditional static soil storages based EnKF approach.
By 2099, the ensemble mean soil temperature at 15 m depth will increase between 1.0 and 3.6 °C in the QTEC.
By 2099, the increase in ensemble mean soil temperature will be 1.0 °C (RCP2.6), 1.9 °C (RCP4.5), and 3.6 °C (RCP8.5) in the present-day permafrost area in the QTEC.
For the same period, the simulated ensemble mean soil temperature at 1 m depth also fits well with the average of ERA-Interim and CLM4 data, with a correlation coefficient of 0.49, and a significance level greater than 95%%.
By 2099, the ensemble mean soil temperature at 1 m depth will increase by 1.0 °C (RCP2.6), 1.9 °C (RCP4.5), and 4.5 °C (RCP8.5) in the present-day permafrost area in the QTEC, although a wide range of temperature was found across the climate models.
As shown in Fig. 2b, the simulated ensemble mean soil temperature at 15 m depth is similar to that based on CLM4 data during the period 1986–2005, with a correlation coefficient of 0.89, and a significance level of over 99%%.
In this paper we use a calibration established along a transect, across a 3.94-ha field with varying soil texture, using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to monitor and nowcast the 3-dimensional θ dynamics on 16 separate days over a period of 38 days.
In this work, a series of synthetic experiments have been designed and implemented to test an operational probabilistic flood forecast system in order to augment the knowledge of how streamflow forecasts can be affected by errors and uncertainties associated with the three aforementioned elements: forecasted rainfall, soil moisture initial conditions, and ensemble size.
For a month each year from 2004 to 2013 the communitarian Los Angeles ensemble fertilized the soil of grass-roots creativity by going places where professional theater artists seldom if ever are seen.
Ensembles of heterogeneous soil fields were generated with spatial correlation parameters derived from similar studies of heterogeneity in hydraulic parameters.
