Exact(11)
The percentages of the area losing snow occurrence are also assessed.
The daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature were used to generate the lower limits and upper limits of the snow occurrence distributions, separately.
How to cite this article: Ning, L. and Bradley, R. S. Snow occurrence changes over the central and eastern United States under future warming scenarios.
During November and March, non-negligible snow occurrence (>10%), disappears across most of the region, except for the extreme northern and northwestern areas.
To quantitatively evaluate the reductions of area with snow occurrence, the percentages of area with snow frequency >10% and >90% under three scenarios are compared in Fig. 4.
Changes of snow occurrence across the central and eastern United States under future warming for the late 21st century are investigated by applying an empirical hyperbolic tangent function to both observed and downscaled high spatial resolution (~12.5 km) daily temperature and precipitation, to compare the historical (1981 2000) and future (2081 2100) snow occurrence.
Similar(49)
Then, average values of snow occurrences were calculated as weighted averages of snow occurrences related to daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and average temperature.
All equation-calculated snow occurrences can explain more than 40% (p < 0.0001) of the total variance of the observed snow occurrences, with most larger than 50%.
Moreover, since the increases of the daily minimum temperature (Fig. S4) are usually larger than the increases of the daily average temperature (Fig. S2) and daily maximum temperature (Fig. S3), the changes of maximum possible snow occurrences (Fig. S6) are also larger than the changes of minimum possible snow occurrences (Fig. S5) and averaged snow occurrences (Fig. 2).
Future changes of snow occurrences over the central and eastern U.S. under two emission scenarios were investigated using high spatial resolution downscaled ensemble averages from ten GCMs.
To verify this method for the central and eastern U.S., we compared observed winter (Nov Mar) snow occurrences with calculated snow occurrences using observed temperature, for ten representative stations (selected for the historical period, 1900 2014, from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) data set13) (Fig. 1).
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