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Today's climate models also suggest a small probability of exceeding four degrees of warming, and research has suggested that anything beyond 12 degrees would render most of the planet uninhabitable for humanity.
Was it rational to accept a small probability of an almost immediate death to reduce greatly a large probability of death by smallpox in the indefinite future?
Pascal's idea was that even a small probability of bringing about an enormous good (without risking unacceptable evil) was good reason for acting.
Markets might be undermined by what Nassim Taleb, an author, has described as a "black swan"—an event with a small probability of happening, but a big impact if it does.
Therefore, the total number of hits would be much like the number of wins in a large number of repetitions of a game of chance with a very small probability of winning.
The median forecast at Betfair.co.uk is 288 seats rather than 281 on the website, with a small probability of a huge shift with odds of 301 seats around 26 per cent, odds of 326 seats 6 per cent.
If there was even a one percent chance of terrorists getting a weapon of mass destruction — and there has been a small probability of such an occurence for some time — the United States must now act as if it were a certainty.
Critical systems must have a very small probability of failure.
What discount rate will you apply to compensate for the small probability of this deal working out?
For sufficiently large, this decoding step can be done with arbitrarily small probability of error.
But that is just taking a gamble that has a very small probability of being killed by a car but a much higher probability of gaining $10!
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com