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Estimating small probabilities of failure remains quite a challenging task in structural reliability when models are computationally demanding.
The design of fixed and compliant offshore platforms requires the reliable estimation of extreme values with small probabilities of exceedance based on an appropriate probability distribution.
Economics ignores the right of future generations to inherit a clean environment; it ignores small probabilities of catastrophic costs delayed far into the distance; it is blind to ethics and justice.
Numerical examples demonstrate that the developed method is exact enough for evaluating the mean values, standard deviations, skewness and kurtosis of the limit state functions and small probabilities of failure as low as 10−4.
Particularly challenging is the reliability analysis of systems represented by computationally costly models, because of the large number of model evaluations that are typically required to estimate small probabilities of failure.
Although these scenarios might be estimated to have small probabilities of occurrence, they should be identified, considered and treated cautiously, as probabilistic analyses should not be the only input to decision-making for the design and protection of critical infrastructures.
Similar(45)
They have a small probability of massive losses, right?
Second, VaR does not capture catastrophic losses that have a small probability of occurring.
But if the lottery ticket said, well you have a small probability of being a millionaire, but you also have a small probability of going bankrupt, we're going to come after you and take everything.
And nobody knows whether it really has a small probability of massive losses, and you could systematically invest in that.
If you give someone a bonus without clawback provisions, he or she will have an incentive to hide risk by engaging in transactions that have a high probability of generating small profits and a small probability of blowups.
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