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The only thing that will work is to address each of the small probabilities that together add up to inevitability.
"The profit-maximizing businessman rationally ignores small probabilities that his conduct in conjunction with that of his competitors may bring down the entire economy".
The author advises practicing sustainable risk management: Never mind that catastrophic risks have extremely small probabilities; build scenarios for them and design strategies for surviving them anyway.
The proposed method is robust to the number of uncertain parameters and efficient in computing small probabilities.
It is based on Monte Carlo simulation, however, extremely small probabilities can be estimated with reasonable computational effort.
Estimating small probabilities of failure remains quite a challenging task in structural reliability when models are computationally demanding.
It could be rational expectation of a rightward surprise ("shy Tories" and so on), rightward bias in markets, and/or an overpricing of small probabilities".
The design of fixed and compliant offshore platforms requires the reliable estimation of extreme values with small probabilities of exceedance based on an appropriate probability distribution.
Although Subset Simulation (SS) is a powerful tool for small probabilities, the computation amount is still large for time-consuming numerical procedures.
We can mathematically roll up all these vanishingly small probabilities and calculate the new odds of winning the jackpot on a single initial ticket purchased: one in 40,665,099.
Economics ignores the right of future generations to inherit a clean environment; it ignores small probabilities of catastrophic costs delayed far into the distance; it is blind to ethics and justice.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com