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Except that if you actually did any kind of simple poll averaging, you got the race right.
We ran a simple poll where 36% of participants said they have returned a BlackBerry Tour because of trackball problems and another 16% have returned the phone for other reasons – that's a 52% return ratio btw.
I'm tempted to take this study with a grain of salt, since they're drawing far-reaching results from a simple poll, when there are actual market indicators they could have used (at greater cost and trouble) that would have given a more comprehensive picture of the industry.
"The Justice Department is considering whether we need to propose concrete solutions… to ensure that voters are not disenfranchised by moves close to an election, by appearing at the wrong polling place, or by simple poll workers' errors," he said.
"The Justice Department is considering whether we need to propose concrete solutions, such as a national standards for counting provisional ballots for federal elections, to ensure that voters are not disenfranchised by moves close to an election, by appearing at the wrong polling place, or by simple poll workers' errors," he said.
Chris Bowers posted a two-part series this week that compares the final estimate accuracy of his simple poll averaging ("simple mean of all non-campaign funded, telephone polls that were conducted entirely within the final eight days of a campaign") to the final pre-election estimates provided by this site and Fivethirtyeight.com.
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The lead is narrow, however: less than two points over Paul in a simple poll-of-polls I created by averaging the eight post-Christmas surveys.
In a previous post, I queried whether mathematical models of the type that he uses add anything to the polls they rely on, and to simple polls of polls, such as those of R.C.P. and T.P.M.
In the table that follows, I have attempted to recreate a simple polling average for competitive states in past elections, using about the same rules that Real Clear Politics applies.
For starters, there is strong evidence that simple polls this far away from election day can be an average of eight percentage points out, simply because most people have not made up their mind.
These features are limited to textoverlays and simple polls.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com