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However, in recent years, a few studies using a combination of instrumental data and simple climate models have arrived at lower estimates.
Third, and most decisively for me, the divestment campaign is driven by a single and simple climate change narrative in which global bads are linked to global temperature.
As The Economist article noted, there have been a few recent studies estimating climate sensitivity toward the low end of that range, mainly using the second approach listed above, applying recent measurements to simple climate models.
Phys., 11, 11827 11857, 2011 Magne Aldrin, Marit Holden, Peter Guttorp, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Gunnar Myhre and Terje Koren Berntsen, Bayesian estimation of climate sensitivity based on a simple climate model fitted to observations of hemispheric temperatures and global ocean heat content, Environmetrics, 2012.
A paper they published in 2008 used a very simple climate model to make this argument, but subsequent research showed that their model was actually too simple, and failed to accurately represent how the global climate operates (green in the first graphic).
Using a combination of recent climate measurements and a relatively simple climate model, the 'energy budget' approach used in Otto's study yielded a best estimate for the immediate (transient) warming of 1.3°C and equilibrium warming of 2.0°C; within the agreed range, but less than climate model best estimates of 1.8°C and 3.2°C, respectively.
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An irreducibly simple climate-sensitivity model is designed to empower even non-specialists to research the question how much global warming we may cause.
2) combining recent climate measurements with simpler climate models.
The aim is to demonstrate a modelling approach which couples a climate-based land classification and simple urban climate model and how this can be used to examine the impact differing urban forms and design strategies have on neighbourhood scale partitioning of energy and resulting consequences.
"Climate-change experts, like Dahl-Jensen, say it's not so simple: The climate is always changing, sometimes very abruptly, so the last thing that mankind should be doing is adding its own forcing actions — like pumping unprecedented amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
"Climate-change experts, like Dahl-Jensen, say it's not so simple: the climate is always changing, sometimes very abruptly, so the last thing that mankind should be doing is adding its own forcing actions — like pumping unprecedented amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
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