You might get a short-term bounce but, if they're being rational I think that could fade pretty quickly".
And when the latter do it, they will really mean it, with consequences far beyond a short-term bounce in the polls and a kick in the shin for Mr Farage.
That may be the case, but even this short-term bounce for Trump has had an election-altering effect – it has taken the wind out of the sails of the #NeverTrump movement.
Meanwhile, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that recent rate cuts had not prevented shares from falling: "Short-term bounce aside, we doubt that the latest cuts will trigger any sustained rally".
He's surely right that a recovery is under way; in fact, the short-term bounce back may actually turn out to be faster than he thinks — rapid growth is not uncommon right after a severe financial crisis.
For example, spinning off its highly profitable Merrill Lynch unit might give the stock a short-term bounce but deprive the bank, the country's largest, of a major source of profits even as margins in more traditional areas of banking like commercial lending are squeezed.
For instance, Japan's vehicle production in the first two months of 2009 was 50% lower than a year before, but global car sales fell by only 25%.Mr Jerram reckons that the inventory rundown is coming to an end, which will lead to a short-term bounce in output as factories reopen.
Brian Belski, fundamental market strategist at US Bancorp Piper Jaffray, said that the gains came after technical indicators, like the number of stocks rising compared with the number falling, fell to levels that showed that stocks were "oversold" and due for a short-term bounce.
