The government has realised that some sectors will fall outside the points system in this way, so it has appointed a panel of economists to draw up a list of occupations that will be allowed to skip it.
Some of the more noteworthy findings come from what sectors will fall behind this year.
The strategy, in a nutshell, seems to be to 1) sack a bunch of public sector workers to force them into the private sector so that, 2) private sector wages will fall, leading to 3) an increase in hiring.Matt Yglesias writes:America is just too big to adjust primarily through the currency channel.
According to Matt Nesto, analysts anticipate that technology sector profits "will fall by 9.5% in the second quarter".
But listless GDP growth will hit the tax take, meaning public-sector borrowing will fall to only 3.6 per cent in 2014-5, according to the NIESR, rather than the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast of 2.1 per cent.
So while oil sector share prices will fall, all the other sectors who are groaning under the strain of high energy prices will see their share prices rise.
That meant that even if the spending plans are met over the next four years, public sector net borrowing will fall only to 3.6% of GDP in 2015-16, rathan then the 1.5% projected.
"If correct, this implies that the gap between public and private sector pay levels will fall back to levels last seen in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when there were recruitment and retention problems in parts of the public sector," the report said.
If the overwhelming consensus of economic opinion is even half right about the recessionary dangers of Brexit, it stands to reason that some people will lose their jobs, especially in the construction, financial and tourism sectors, that wages will fall, and that house prices outside central London will probably fall too.
