And every scenario exercise that I have seen relating to any activity remotely concerned with the Middle East has had Islam and Islamic fundamentalism at its core.Scenario planning is not primarily about forecasting the future.
In the final stage of scenario exercise, the experts were asked to develop a strategy for the desirable scenario development.
Scenario exercise output Qualitative – a set of equally plausible scenarios in discursive narrative form supported by graphics; some limited quantification.
In this article, we draw upon the key findings of these three research projects in a scenario exercise.
The authors interrogate what scenario exercises are in actual practice, in the context of what they are used for and how they are designed, before then considering the criteria for determining 'success' for a scenario exercise.
Example 2, The 'Mont Fleur' scenarios, South Africa – social learning "The Mont Fleur Scenario Exercise, an experiment in 'future-forging', brought together 25 South Africans … All were committed in their own ways to building a better future for their country.
Comprehensive description of complex contexts, thus following the Intuitive-Logics Model Scope of the scenario exercise Can be either broad or narrow scope ranging from global, regional, country industry to an issue-specific focus [2].
"The Mont Fleur Scenario Exercise, an experiment in 'future-forging', brought together 25 South Africans … All were committed in their own ways to building a better future for their country.
Two uncertainties The two drivers you need are those that are at the same time the most uncertain and the most important ones for the driving question of the scenario exercise.
Target year of this scenario exercise is considered 10 years, in order to be fully established infrastructural changes, change of behavioural pattern of local stakeholders, environmentally-friendly spirit in the local community, development of alternative tourist activities and related hosting infrastructure etc.
In the light of our scenario exercise, PES schemes may in fact produce new kinds of inequalities at the local level between those who are able and willing to transform their practises guided by such schemes, and those who will not or cannot transform their practises.
