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In the latter case, population growth outpaces the feasible scale-up rate.
The same inclusion rate for facilities by type is used for all three scale-up rate scenarios.
Our results showed that even under optimistic assumptions reaching the 15 49 male age cohort would take 9 years, from 2008 to 2017; at the medium scale-up rate this would take 13 years, from 2008 to 2021; and at the low scale-up rate reaching the 15 49 male age cohort would take 21 years, from 2008 to 2029.
A residual circumcision is defined in the scenarios as the difference between the projections for the target population and the number of circumcisions, as defined by the scale-up rate, performed on that group per year.
Although the likelihood that a country will introduce a new vaccine or scale-up rate is not always proportionate to the level of disease burden, these results may affect policy makers' decisions whether or not to introduce a vaccine.
The model's 'target year' input could be informed by a feasibility study but if this variable is constrained there are little options for adjusting scale-up rate beyond the model's 'slow', 'fast', 'linear' and 'S-shaped' curve fitting options (Futures Institute 2009; Bollinger et al. 2009).
In the case of circumcision as an HIV prevention tool in Rwanda, an optimization approach allowed practitioners to create models which then formed the basis of operational plans that back calculated service delivery rates from the number of procedures needed to reach pre-determined project targets, without incorporating an analysis of feasible scale-up rates.
The initiative seeks to scale up the rate of progress towards universal primary education, support and build on the results of a major enrolment surge in countries that have abolished school fees in primary education, and maintain and enhance quality of education.
45 The endpoint was PID reported on a 10-point numeric rating scale up to 60 minutes after intake.
Starting with a half-empty fund, even with the ambitious rate of scale up projected by ODI, means it could take a decade to reach the five-year ambition of $1.5 billion.
However, in other countries, the rate of scale up is not sufficient to achieve their national targets for 2010.
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