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The points on the PC scatter plot using the sample eigenvectors, called the sample points, are scattered to some extent because of sampling fluctuation.
This small size in reads number make this group more susceptible to sampling fluctuation.
In other words, the sampling fluctuation is not affecting the feature.
In contrast, DE estimates are based on observed effects that are corrected for sampling fluctuation to get 'true' effect sizes.
Some parameter estimates hit the lower bound of zero, but this is due to sampling fluctuation (as we illustrate in a small simulation study described in the Supplementary notes).
If monotonicity holds, then apart from sampling fluctuation it can be expected that in the group of persons with restscore s a higher proportion will endorse the item step than in the group of persons below with restscore r, for any pair of numbers r < s.
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Those differences can be put down to sampling fluctuations, but the likelihood is that there has been no decisive shift since early October, with the two main parties within a point or two of each other.
And in a close race, quite separate from the factors listed above, we always risk being caught out by random sampling fluctuations: none of us can repeal the laws of probability.
The red dashed-dotted lines display 95% variability envelopes, representing sampling fluctuations.
These two observations have a straightforward connection: Sampling fluctuations can accumulate without a restoring force for a time s−1log λ.
This methodology accounts for both differences in definitions and the effects of measurement error due to, for example, under reporting and sampling fluctuations.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com