Exact(1)
In a statistical sense, we would call this bias: that the polls are not taking an accurate sample of the voter population.
Similar(58)
The calls -- both in New Hampshire in 2010 and Iowa this week -- appear less like a true "push poll" designed to reach large numbers of voters with negative messages than an effort to test negative messages with a small sample of voters (the 2010 Hodes poll interviewed just 529 voters).
This week, the Fox News Poll put Donald Trump way out front in the Republican contest with 25percentt of the sample of registered voters.
Both the types of questions asked, and the people pollsters choose as part of the sample of voters questioned, can drastically affect the outcome.
For the sample of Republican primary voters, the margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points.
A limitation of the dataset is that it did not set out to get a representative sample of political voters, but the sample sizes are still quite robust.
According to the sampling of Tony voters, the early part of the evening is likely to feature some happy moments for the youthful creators of "Urinetown" and the show's equally youthful producers, who brought the musical from its humble beginnings at the 1999 New York International Fringe Festival to its current home on Broadway.
The researchers who carried out the Fox News and CNN/ORC polls, which both showed the race to be closer, didn't specify what screens they used in gathering a sample of likely voters in the Democratic caucus, but they were probably a good deal looser than those applied by Loras College.
With these relatively strong participation rates, polling firms should generally not be removing all that many registered voters from their pool when they draw up their sample of likely voters, so the partisan advantage for one or another candidate isn't likely to change all that much.
From a scientifically informed vantage it seems as if the best and brightest have been replaced by ignorant and incurious men and women who have been elected by citizens, if the sample of Louisiana voters is at all indicative, who are at best ill-informed about current events, geography, and science.
And the state polls which collectively represent a much bigger sample of voters than the national ones, and enable us to project what matters, which is the electoral college tell a very different tale.There are indeed a number of states that are extremely close.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com