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Especially unpredictable too are the chances of troubled economies getting back onto an even keel.As the IMF's senior representative in Russia, based in Moscow during the 1990s, Mr Gilman is well-placed to offer an unusually detailed account of what really went on as the IMF tried to work with the Russian authorities to help it move from post-Soviet chaos to a functioning market economy.
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In Russia, calls have increased for Moscow to take ownership of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, a mostly ethnic-Russian region where Russia bases its Black Sea Fleet.
Russia also helped extremists based in Syria through a state policy of shipping potential militants to that country, and Iran has sheltered al Qaeda leaders from U.S. attacks for over a decade.
Russia's Black Sea fleet is based in the Ukrainian port of Sebastopol.
Mr. Bradley also advises the Open Russia Foundation, a Russian philanthropy based in Britain that is bankrolled by Mr. Khodorkovsky.
Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert at the Institute of International Relations, based in Prague, said of the yearlong campaign, "It's hard to see much in terms of true strategic impact".
Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Human Rights Watch, based in New York, had said "practically nothing about the colossal damage" to South Ossetia "as the result of Georgian aggression".
Correction: November 7, 2003, Friday A front-page article on Wednesday about efforts by Mikhail B. Khodorkovsky, founder of the Russian oil company Yukos, to gain access to influential Americans misstated the relationship between former Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey and the Open Russia Foundation, a Russian philanthropy based in Britain and financed by Mr. Khodorkovsky.
Russia also has several submarines based in Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave bordered by Poland and Lithuania and facing out to Sweden, as well as a much bigger force near Murmansk on the Kola Peninsula.
The court, based in Strasbourg, France, said Russia could not ban the Church of Scientology only because it had not been in the country for long, and awarded the groups a total of nearly $30,000 in damages and costs.
Page B1 BP TO EXIT RUSSIA VENTURE BP, the oil giant based in London, said that it planned to sell its 50 percent stake in its Russian joint venture, TNK-BP, after being approached by potential buyers that it did not identify.
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