The Polls We haven't run forecasts in any of the states.
Then Anthony Pratt, who runs forecasting for the auto-data firm Polk, told me that it was the exact opposite.
"The sentiment is mixed, but the majority of artists couldn't care less about it," said Jack Becker, who runs Forecast Public Artworks, an area group that finances public art.
Economists in those areas relied on Keynesian models to make short-run forecasts.
While long-run forecasts are a fool's game in modern Australian politics, it is inevitable that a new leader of the Greens will mean some significant changes in both policy and approach.
If there eventually is a true, integrated social science, it will still be a science of complex, nonlinear systems – systems that are chaotic in the technical sense, and hence not susceptible to detailed long-run forecasts.
Pioneered by Royal Dutch/Shell (which includes at least three different long-run forecasts of the global economy in its strategic planning decisions), scenario planning has been out of fashion for a decade because the geopolitical climate appeared to have become more benign.
And by the way, this exoneration applies even if you should have known what was coming; all this says is that you may not be the right guy to listen to for short-run forecasts, which doesn't necessarily say that you're wrong about the bigger issues.
In the test runs, forecasts for power price and temperature are simulated by disturbing actual (historical) data by the Wiener process (random walk).
