We present the IV estimates for the impacts of duration from rollout start to MM on service enrollment, TWP completion, and NSTW months graphically in Figure 1.
We hypothesize that the longer the duration from rollout start to the MM the lower the expected value for each outcome variable enrollment in vocational services, completion of the TWP, and the number of NSTW months.
The difference might be substantial because we are relying on random variation in duration from rollout start to the IMM to identify impacts, and the later a beneficiary's IMM, the greater the likelihood of an adjustment to the actual MM.
Was enrollment for employment services and completion of TWP less likely to occur as of 12, 24, 36, and 48 months after rollout start the longer the duration from rollout start to mail month?
This provides the foundation for estimating the impacts of the duration from Ticket rollout start to the IMM on later beneficiary outcomes.
Consequently after controlling for age we assume that variation in the duration from the rollout start to the IMM is exogenous to each of the outcome variables (that is, independent of other unobserved factors that might affect outcomes).
Was the number of NSTW months as of 12, 24, 36, and 48 months after rollout start smaller the longer the duration from rollout start to mail month?
Each question concerns the impact of duration from the month before the rollout start in the beneficiary's state to the month in which SSA mailed a Ticket to the beneficiary (the beneficiary's "mail month") on outcomes over the 48 months after the rollout start.
We do not reject the null hypothesis that the impact of duration to MM is linear over the rollout period.
For Phase 3 we also reject the hypothesis that the impact of duration to MM is linear over the rollout period at the 5percentt level.
For each outcome, we also tested the hypothesis that the marginal impact of delaying the mailing of the Ticket an additional month was the same throughout the rollout period (that is, that there is a linear relationship between duration to mail month and the expected outcome).
