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In fact, they tend to be too calm and exhibit minimal variability as silent risks accumulate beneath the surface.
The risks accumulate over a long time, Mr. Hauer said, and that drives officials to take prudent steps now to prepare for the worst.
"The financial crisis has shown what happens when risks accumulate unnoticed," said Lord (Nicholas) Stern, a professor at the London School of Economics.
"The financial crisis has shown what happens when risks accumulate unnoticed," said Stern, who added that the risk was "very big indeed" and that almost all investors and regulators were failing to address it.
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The bill infuriated financial reform watchdogs, who say it makes it much harder for regulators to see risks accumulating in the system and could facilitate international tax-dodging.
Much depends on the manner in which risk accumulates due to the accumulation of multiple risk alleles.
Experts compare heroin users to smokers, in that risk accumulates over time.
The regulators overseeing the bank at the Treasury Department's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency didn't detect the risk accumulating in the C.I.O.'s synthetic-credit portfolio when it increased ten-fold in size during 2011, from four billion dollars to fifty-one billion dollars, and then tripled in size, to a hundred and fifty-seven billion dollars, in the first quarter of 2012.
Although a history of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is a recognized risk factor for PPH in subsequent pregnancies, little is known about how the risk accumulates over multiple pregnancies, how recurrence varies by PPH subtype, and whether recurrence can be explained by chronic maternal conditions.
Table 5 demonstrates that falls risk accumulated for those with a combination of risk factors, such that women aged 80 years and over with depressive symptoms and taking antidepressants were 1.85 times (95%CI: 1.17, 2.93) more likely to have multiple falls and 2.69 times (95%CI: 1.65, 4.37) more likely to sustain injury.
However, those younger participants did appear to have somewhat lower risk, consistent with the notion that risk accumulates in association with illness progression, chronicity or concurrent treatments.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com